Six months before the storm kicked up by the January 2021 general election could subside, Kampala city traders were up in arms threatening to protest economic hardships that had been occasioned by the second 42-day national lockdown imposed to stem an upsurge in COVID-19 infections.
The traders were irked by a litany of issues, including Government’s sudden closure of shops and arcades, letting their perishable merchandise to go bad and demands by landlords for them to clear rental arrears yet they were not working.
With hindsight of the November 2020 protests against the arrest of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, that left over 50 people within the metropolitan Kampala dead and scores injured, the threats by city traders to hit the streets caused tension within the security circles. But Government moved swiftly to contain the threats.
Frantic calls to political, cultural and religious leaders for action to salvage the traders’ plight largely went unheeded despite a section of opposition activists thinking that the moment could be seized to rally citizens into civil disobedience against the government like the deadly Walk to Work protests after the 2011 general elections.
The economic meltdown and inactivity of opposition leaders to challenge Government into action, sources say, is what pushed former Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) president, Dr Kizza Besigye, into organising clandestine back-to-back meetings with a number of opposition political players to brainstorm ideas of a fresh activism drive.
The meetings, mostly held at his Katonga-based office in Kampala, began with just a few confidants, including Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago, FDC president Patrick Amuriat and former Leader of Opposition Wafula Oguttu, but soon stretched to reach out to a number of individuals in other political parties and organisations.
“They had a grand plan and had identified energetic opposition activists that they would work with, but for fear of reprimand from the party, Besigye presented the idea of fresh activism within his (FDC) executive and he was given a green light. It is around August that Besigye started strategic reach out to especially disgruntled players from NUP and the Democratic Party (DP) and other small political parties to form a solid base before advancing to get the bigger players on board,” said the source.
The climax of the monthslong machinations was the early October birth of yet another pressure group dubbed, People’s Front for Transition (PFT). Besigye says this is intended to cause urgent regime change for failure to address a political and socioeconomic crisis.
According to former Kawempe North MP candidate, Sulaiman Kidandala, “When he (Besigye) came to us, the concern was not only the city traders, but all the sectors.
He was saying we cannot afford sitting back and wait for 2026 because firstly, we know an election can no longer do much, so we have to get a series of activities that remind NRM that since you have failed to address the challenge of poverty, disease and ignorance, peacefully step aside and somebody else takes over.”
Besides FDC, the protocol establishing the PFT has been signed by Justice Forum (JEEMA), Conservative Party (CP), People’s Supportive Party for Change (PSPC), the People’s Government, Social Democratic Party (SDP), and DP factions, as well as Uganda People’s Congress (UPC).
Whereas the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) initially took to an observer status, the party secretary general, Saddam Gayira, recently told the media that they have jumped ship while DP, led by Norbert Mao, and NUP have publicly rejected the idea.
“I attended the launch as an observer, but we need to have a deeper reflection and honest conversations amongst ourselves on how we are going to proceed because we have been here before and based on previous experiences, there is need to address the question of how we are going to do it differently this time,” Gayira said.
Despite outlining the major objectives of the PFT, it is the scepticism expressed by major opposition political players that has captured the media attention and political analysts opining that PFT’s failure to find cohesion within opposition ranks at the onset is the major hurdle that Besigye’s new efforts might have to jump.
To predict the outcome, mass communication lecturer Dr Sam Kazibwe warns that unless Besigye persuades more grandeur opposition political organisations and opinion leaders, very little will be achieved by the PFT.
He argues that although Besigye has been able to get the likes of SDP and CP on board, “the truth is that FDC is the only serious entity in that front, but you do not downplay the role of a leading opposition political party in such an arrangement. If you do not have NUP on board, perhaps its supporters are going to treat your intentions with a pinch of salt, but you also need the likes of DP because they are a reflection of Uganda’s struggles since independence.”
However, the PFT leaders say they are not in oblivion to these facts, that is why Amuriat was, during the launch of their pressure group, explicit to extend an invitation to their NUP counterparts.
“I call upon other opposition political forces and particularly to speak to the NUP leadership that if they really want a difference in the politics of the country, we should all come together and make perhaps one final push,” said Amuriat.
According to Besigye, “the idea to form the red card front (PFT) started with a few people, but it has been growing and I have had very lengthy engagements with several opposition players, including those in NUP, before the general elections, during the elections and after, but they told me they needed more time to reorganise themselves before they are part of anything.”
Since Uganda attained independence in 1962, coalitions and alliances of political players opposed to those in power have been the fulcrum for change in both civil and armed political struggles.
In his October 2020 paper on forging political coalitions in Uganda to Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, Makerere University Prof. Mwambutsya Ndebesa, says the practice of political coalitions dates back to the 1960s, with many social and political cleavages emerging on the eve of independence, the most notable being ethnic and religious-based.
“In every general election since independence, there have been attempts at forming political coalitions, but each time they either failed immediately or briefly materialised before collapsing after the elections. There are many explanations for this, ranging from inner-party struggles to contextual conditions,” said Ndebesa.
In the pathway for change, the difference in operation and opinions of political players mainly highlights the bickering and elbowing in their agenda as opposed to finding common ground for consensus. Without a full understanding of the intentions forcing Besigye into action, some have pointed to the eminent threat of either being completely assimilated or overshadowed as the major reason behind a section of opposition parties staying away from his new pressure group.
Going to the streets is irrational — NUP
On her part, the NUP deputy secretary general, Aisha Kabanda, says whereas they do not feel threatened by any political forces overshadowing them, “we have every right to ask what the motive behind this is, because we have just come from a very bruising election, where many of our supporters are either dead or imprisoned, so we are currently focusing on ensuring that we have them freed.
Pushing us back on the street before we hold authorities accountable for those that were on the same streets in November is irrational.”
But for the DP secretary general, Gerald Siranda, the threat of the party risking its identity and getting swallowed up within a new political formation is a reality they have to understudy before making any commitments.
“It took us close to three years to build formations such as DP Bloc, DP Reunion and the Grand People’s Coalition, for which many of the PFT members were a part of, but these did not only collapse, but our party actually lost a significant chunk of its members on account of their actions and these same people are now convincing us to join a platform organised under five months and bringing us on board just weeks to their launch,” Siranda said.
He notes that the impact of the 2021 general election requires all political parties to go back on the drawing board and rebuild their institutions right from the grassroots and return to the negotiation table as much stronger and viable entities.
Settle internal wrangles
Although political analyst Henry Kasacca shares the sentiment that opposition political parties are hesitant to join Besigye for fear of losing themselves, he adds, “these entities lose out membership in such coalitions simply because of their own internal party weaknesses, but not because someone set out to finish them off. Therefore, that reasoning is a scapegoat, let them settle the internal contractions within their parties and they will be able to play with others without fear of being assimilated.”
NRM’s tight grip
In the NRM’s 36 years, the number of those that have stepped forward to undo its tight grip on power is several, but just what fails them is the question to ponder.
The 1996 election, organised under a new constitutional order, did not allow political party activities as the country had adopted a Movement system as an umbrella body that is all encompassing.
However, that did not stop renowned political players, such as Dr Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere, who was the frontline challenger against President Museverni, from joining efforts to defeat him.
All de facto political parties and organisations opposed to Museveni rallied behind Ssemogerere to form the Inter- Party Forces Coalition and similar attempts were made in 2001 under the Reform Agenda that fronted Besigye and in 2011, when opposition parties founded the Inter- Parties Coalition (IPC).
Ndebesa writes that all these were uneasy coalitions, “as some parties would not join and even those who did continued to grumble, complaining that the major parties, such as FDC, were stealing their supporters. After the elections, these coalitions would disintegrate and acrimony would ensue until another election took place.”
Lukwago, who is also Besigye’s vice national chairman in the PFT structure, argues that it is erroneous to draw comparisons between their new efforts and previous coalitions because whereas in the past political players have been coming together for electoral purposes, the PFT is an activist platform meant to cause regime change before the general election.
He says: “There is a reason as to why political scientists have definitions for all these formations. A political party is different from an alliance or coalition, just like there is a difference between a front and a movement. We are not here to look for elective positions, but to engage in activities aimed at ending NRM’s misrule, that is why we are starting now, almost five years away from the next election.”
Besides coalitions such as IPC and The Democratic Alliance that was unsuccessfully attempted in the run-up to the 2016 election, Uganda’s opposition supporters have also had a fair share of activism platforms, such as the 2011 Walk to Work that gave birth to the Activists for Change (A4C) and later For God and My Country (4GC). However, much as they engaged in rigorous activities and protests, the struggle for change has not been forthcoming.
Is Besigye plotting a comeback?
Political analyst Henry Kasacca says for all intents and purposes, Besigye began the initiative to fill a political vacuum that emerged after the 2021 elections.
“Players outside NUP think that the party with the majority in Parliament has not provided enough leadership to advance the struggle. There are many events unfolding that as opposition leaders, they would have jumped on to capitalise the struggle, so someone had to fill this gap,” Kasacca says.
He adds that the challenge at hand is for opposition political parties to focus on who should be leading these efforts, contrary to what they claim to achieve.
This, the Social Democratic Party president and secretary People’s Front for Transition, Michael Mabiike, reveals that Besigye had foreseen and was hesitant to lead the front, but members went through a profiling exercise and zeroed on him.
“For each entity that accepted to be part of PFT, their leaders were profiled. Therefore, to say that Besigye is plotting a comeback is unfair, because he even did not want to be the national chairman. If NUP or DP had joined, their leaders would have been assessed and may be today, Mao or Bobi Wine (Kyagulanyi) would be leading this front, because Besigye is willing to give way. However, that does not take away the fact that he is an outstanding veteran politician that any political effort would like to identify with,” Mabiike explained.
He added that similar accusations were made against Besigye in the run-up to the 2021 elections, but he proved the country otherwise when he refused to contest for President, but continued being politically active.
Makerere University’s Prof. Mwambutsya Ndebesa says despite the weaknesses and challenges of coalition building in Uganda, “the country needs such efforts because the advantages of successful coalitions outweigh the disadvantages. Uganda is an emerging, not an established democracy, so combining resources in running a political campaign makes a lot of sense.
It enables the coalition to reach the electorate and stimulate citizens to actively participate in their own governance. A coalition would also have the advantage of combining human resources to guard against the vagaries of entrenched regimes.”
All players are welcome — Kivumbi
The Butambala County MP, Muwanga Kivumbi, agrees that all change-seeking Ugandans should start initiatives aimed at ending the NRM rule, but as to whether one group should join the other as the only guarantee to success, is a debate that has to be interrogated.
“Nobody should be opposed to Besigye starting this initiative because in a struggle, you never know which one extra effort is going to cause change, but like FDC, NUP is also a political party that is under a front called the People Power Movement, which is a broader platform for all. What we need now is adequate consultations on how all these fronts can walk in the same direction to avoid killing such a noble cause,” Muwanga said.
Besigye said during the launch of PFT that they would reserve three weeks for engaging in deeper conversations with other opposition political players and come up with a grand scheme on how they would operate.
However, sources within the PFT say as consultations are ongoing to persuade NUP and DP into the fold, the pressure group will next week launch a series of activities, beginning in the countryside, as a way of showing that their efforts are not about overshadowing NUP within its stronghold, Kampala.
